Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer reveals the two most likely scenarios for how the Iran war ends and explains why Trump keeps saying he wants to "take the oil." He describes Karg Island, a piece of land half the size of Manhattan that sits just off the Iranian coast and handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, explaining that US Central Command estimates it can be taken with 12,000 to 15,000 troops and that thousands of additional American ground forces are currently being deployed to the region.

He lays out the more likely scenario: the ceasefire gets extended, more substantive talks follow the 21-hour negotiation in Pakistan, and Iran eventually compromises on nuclear enrichment in exchange for maintaining a privileged toll position over the Strait of Hormuz. He explains that Iran would frame the toll payments as reconstruction reparations for the war damage they suffered, and that this outcome, while ugly, avoids further escalation and eventually allows European and Indian naval escorts to create a secure shipping environment.

Discover:
• Why Trump keeps saying he wants to "take the oil" and what that actually means
• The tiny island responsible for 90% of Iranian oil exports
• The two most likely scenarios for how the Iran war ends
• Why Iran might concede on nuclear weapons but keep control of the strait
• How Russia is making more money now than before the war started
• Why weapons meant for Ukraine are being redirected to the Middle East
• The 30-year mistake that caused Europe's decline on the global stage

📺 Watch the full episode here – https://youtu.be/EVts3Ui_0AI

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