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📈 NEW — MILLION DOLLAR LONG-TERM INVESTOR: A real $1,000,000 model portfolio from Gareth and Lawton Ho: https://verifiedinvesting.com/products/million-dollar-long-term-investor
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A hedge fund just got wiped out. A young manager who leveraged into the semiconductors with triple ETFs blew up hard enough that Citadel bought his distressed assets — and Gareth's view is simple: where there's one cockroach, there are many. That forced deleveraging is why the chips are pressured again after SanDisk's 40% two-day rip. Meanwhile oil is down as much as 9% after Trump backed off strikes on Iran, pulling yields in and giving stocks a bid. On today's Trading Game Plan, Gareth maps oil's next target, the joint US-Japan yen intervention, and the SpaceX measured move.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔴 US OIL — Down as much as 9% after strike threats were walked back. Gareth banked the short at his multi-factor level and sees a trail toward $70, with midterm politics pushing the same way.
🟢 SPY — Futures up 0.6% on the oil drop. Last week's close below the 2021 trend line never confirmed, so it was a fake-out. Watch 7,555–7,560 for a breakout; jobs data this week sets September Fed odds.
🔴 SEMIS / SNDK / MU — The deleveraging is epic, potentially hundreds of billions. SanDisk ripped 40% in two days off the round-number pierce, gave it back, and is lower again. Margin calls mean more pressure ahead.
🔴 30-YR / 10-YR YIELD — The 10-Year eases to 4.68% on oil, but the 30-Year is still at 2007 levels. September hike odds slipped as the bond market reads Warsh as bark, no bite.
🟢 DXY / USD-JPY — The dollar tagged key trend-line support and should bounce. The dollar-yen collapsed on intervention — and not just Japan: the US intervened jointly, nearly unprecedented, and a major reason he is a gold bull.
🔵 SPACEX — A measured move into tomorrow's earnings and a roughly 100-million-share unlock. Gareth watches $96–$97 as his buy zone below $100.
🔵 GOLD / SILVER — Gold retested the wedge trend line then pulled back as the dollar bounced; the wedge comes to a head by mid-August, so it must break within two weeks. Silver looks weak and must hold $54.80.
🔴 NATGAS / BITCOIN — Natural gas flat, with one more move down into spot support expected. Bitcoin struggles below its trend line; he wants a close above $63K and accumulates near $50K.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Leverage does not unwind quietly. One blown-up fund means forced selling across the group — which is why beaten-down chips get sold into every bounce until the deleveraging finishes.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Oil Drops 9%, Stocks Get a Bid
03:30 Su0026P: The Fake-Out and Breakout Level
06:30 Yields: Why the 30-Year Stays High
09:30 The Joint US-Japan Yen Intervention
14:00 Hedge Fund Blowup and Semi Deleveraging
19:00 SanDisk: The 40% Rip and What's Next
21:30 SpaceX: Measured Move Into Earnings
25:00 Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Bitcoin
31:30 Rumble Wallet: Claim $5 in USA₮
33:30 Wrap-Up
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💬 COMMENT below: Is the deleveraging finished, or just getting started?
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